As Marylanders prepare to cast their votes on Tuesday, the number of unaffiliated voters is on the verge of surpassing the Republican voter count statewide, with fewer than 2,000 separating the two groups.
At the end of October, the State Board of Elections reported 1,014,876 active Republican voters alongside 1,012,957 active unaffiliated voters. This data was released on Monday and shows both groups constitute approximately 23% of Maryland’s total active voters, which numbers around 4.3 million.
In contrast to four years ago, just prior to the gubernatorial election in 2022, Republicans outnumbered unaffiliated voters by nearly 155,000. A year ago, that gap had narrowed to about 45,000. By the end of September, the difference had shrunk further to approximately 4,100.
Since October 2022, there has been a significant increase of about 167,000 unaffiliated voters, marking a growth of nearly 20%. Meanwhile, the Republican party has seen an influx of about 14,000 voters during the same timeframe.
Current Status of Democrats
The Democratic Party remains the largest voter group in Maryland, with around 2.24 million active voters, accounting for just above half of the total. However, there has been little change in their numbers recently. Active Democrats peaked at roughly 2.29 million in November 2020 and have since declined by about 20,000 votes since 2022, although approximately 13,000 were added over the last year.
The trend of increasing unaffiliated voters has been a gradual process over the past decade. Since 2011, the number of voters not affiliated with either major party has nearly doubled, while Democrats experienced a 14% growth and Republicans grew by 9% during the same period.
This shift has altered the composition of Maryland’s electorate. The percentage of unaffiliated voters has risen from about 15% to 23%, while the Democratic share has decreased from around 56% to approximately 51.5%. Meanwhile, the Republican percentage has dipped to about 23.4%, marking its lowest level since the data tracking began in 2011.
Trends Across the State
The rise in unaffiliated voters is evident across all 24 voting jurisdictions in Maryland, which include 23 counties and Baltimore City, since the last governor’s election.
In five of these jurisdictions, unaffiliated voters now outnumber their Republican counterparts: Montgomery, Prince George’s, Howard, and Charles counties, as well as Baltimore City. Notably, Charles County, which saw a Republican majority of about 1,200 in 2022, now has around 4,700 more unaffiliated voters than Republicans.
While Republicans still outnumber unaffiliated voters in the remaining 19 jurisdictions, the disparity has significantly decreased in some larger areas. For example, in Baltimore County, the gap has shrunk from approximately 29,300 to around 8,900, and in Anne Arundel County, the difference has been cut by more than half, reducing to about 15,000.
Interestingly, Democrats have lost voters in 20 out of the 24 jurisdictions. The largest decreases have occurred in their traditionally strong areas, including Prince George’s County, Baltimore City, and Montgomery County; however, these losses were modest, ranging from 1% to 2%. Despite the losses, Democrats still maintain a majority in all three locales.
Currently, Democrats hold the largest voter base in nine jurisdictions, which encompasses all five areas where unaffiliated voters outnumber Republicans. Conversely, Republicans are the prevailing group in the other 15 jurisdictions. This now includes Dorchester and Kent counties on the Eastern Shore, which were previously majority-Democratic in 2022.
In Western Maryland, Republicans continue to dominate, notably in Garrett County, where their ranks surpass those of unaffiliated voters by about a four-to-one margin.
Note: The statistics supplied include only active voters and are compiled by Skipjack, a resource for election data managed by Derek Willis, a lecturer at the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism, using information from the Maryland State Board of Elections.
Mehedi Marof contributes reporting for Capital News Service.
