BENGALURU, India (AP) — A new research report warns that the current intense El Niño and the accompanying unprecedented global temperatures are likely to result in nearly half a million more deaths worldwide by the end of February. This impactful study was released on Wednesday by the Climate Impact Lab, which is based at the University of Chicago.
According to the report, the severe heat anticipated from June to the end of February could result in an estimated 451,000 additional fatalities attributed to heat exposure, a significant increase compared to the expected number of deaths in an average year.
The report indicates that poorer nations, which are already facing challenges like food shortages and high energy costs driven by climate change and the implications of the conflict in Iran, will bear the brunt of this crisis.
Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and co-author of the study, emphasized that the dangers posed by heat may extend beyond February, even though the current El Niño is projected to dissipate then. The repercussions of this climatic event could linger into the following summer, he noted.
The findings reveal that heat poses the greatest threat in areas that are already hot and economically disadvantaged.
“For those already experiencing extreme heat, even a small increase in temperature can be exceedingly hazardous,” Greenstone commented. In contrast, wealthier regions typically have better access to air conditioning, reliable water supplies, and effective healthcare systems, which can mitigate the risks associated with elevated temperatures.
The research integrated seasonal temperature projections with localized data on the mortality impacts of extreme heat across more than 24,000 global regions. The additional heat-related fatalities were assessed by comparing anticipated deaths resulting from El Niño-induced spikes in temperature against a baseline of expected deaths if temperatures remained consistent with those observed over the last thirty years. The projections cover the entire duration of the El Niño, from June 2026 to the end of February 2027.
The report indicates increased heat-related deaths in the Global South
The analysis by Greenstone and his team also highlights that the Global South — a term that generally refers to developing nations — will face the most severe consequences from the extreme heat.
Researchers anticipate that the Sahel region in Africa, situated along the arid southern boundaries of the Sahara Desert, will experience the highest number of additional heat-related fatalities, with projections indicating around 66,800 deaths linked to El Niño-driven temperatures.
Other significant regions expected to be severely affected include South and Southeast Asia as well as certain areas in Latin America. This includes approximately 19,400 additional deaths in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia, along with 19,300 in Indonesia, 15,800 in India, and 13,300 in Brazil.
Implementing heat warnings and cooling centers could save lives
Given the alarming statistics, the report outlines various measures that governments can implement to reduce risks, such as establishing heat-warning systems, creating cooling centers, providing hydration stations, and ensuring protections for outdoor workers. Additionally, expanding hospital capacities and engaging in targeted outreach to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly, are also highlighted as critical strategies.
The authors advocate for anticipatory financing, allowing governments to allocate resources ahead of forecasted heat surges.
Abhiyant Tiwari, a heat expert at NRDC India who was not involved in the study, remarked that the projections serve as an urgent call to action rather than just a cause for concern.
However, he noted that while having well-structured plans — as seen in India’s case — is important, effectively implementing these strategies and securing necessary funding remains challenging.
“The true measure of our readiness is not how many heat warnings we issue, but how efficiently we protect our populace and decrease preventable deaths,” Tiwari stated.
Climate change is intensifying El Niño’s extreme heat
Although El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, the current exceptionally strong event is occurring in a world that has already been warmed by human-induced climate change, thus amplifying the risks associated with extreme heat.
The Climate Impact Lab indicates that global land temperatures during this El Niño could rise by approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.1 degrees Fahrenheit), resulting in 44% more extremely hot days compared to a typical year. The study suggests that these temperature increases might reflect conditions that climate change could render commonplace in about two decades.
This year’s El Niño may therefore serve as a preview of future climatic conditions as the planet continues to warm. The report presents an opportunity for policymakers to identify precise areas where emergency measures can be promptly enacted to potentially save tens of thousands of lives.
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